![]() In sum, the post-war baby boom was rooted in widespread gender inequality in the labour market combined with the after effects of World War II. The baby boom corresponds to birth cohorts (i.e., birth year of the mother) 1920-1940. Note: Vertical axis is completed fertility rates (i.e., average number of children per woman in a given birth cohort) in the US and neutral countries. In contrast, in neutral countries such as Sweden and Switzerland the baby boom was far less pronounced (see Figure 3). Indeed, we show that the countries that experienced the biggest baby booms were Allied countries with a strong wartime demand for female labour and a large post-war increase in the labour force participation of older women (such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the US, see Figure 2). Our hypothesis linking World War II and the female labour market implies that the size of the baby boom should vary across countries, because only in some countries was female labour mobilised substantially during the war. International evidence confirms the link between World War II and the baby boom It is the story of these younger women that explains most of the baby boom. Ultimately, they ended up building bigger families with more children. Many of these young women got married and started families a little earlier than they would have had they been employed. ![]() As the older women took over, young women were crowded out of the labour market. Note: Total labour supply by younger (20-32) and older (33-60) women in the US (as a percentage of labour supply by men in the same age group)įigure 1 shows that, in the US, labour force participation of women between the ages of 20 and 32 (the main childbearing years) dropped sharply during these decades, while the participation of older women rose quickly. In the 1950s and 1960s, these women took up a lot of the jobs that traditionally had been held by young single women. The women of the war generation gained valuable labour-market experience, and many of them continued to work in peacetime. We argue in recent research (Doepke, Hazan and Maoz 2007) that much of this increase was a long-term effect of World War II.ĭuring the war, millions of women replaced men in factories and offices while the men served in the military. ![]() For fertility rates to rise, a second factor had to come into play – the surge in labour market participation of older women in the 1950s. Of course, gender discrimination in the labour market was already widespread before the arrival of the baby boom. World War II worsened labour market conditions for young women So, for young women, confronted with a lack of work opportunities – but an abundance of prosperous young men - getting married early and having a large family was a natural choice. In parts of Germany, for example, until the 1950s female teachers were required to resign from their jobs once they married. Many countries explicitly discriminated against women in the labour market. In this environment, young men could easily find secure employment enabling them to support a family.īut for young women in the 1950s and early 1960s, labour market opportunities were still largely restricted to traditionally female areas such as secretarial work or retail jobs. The economic boom of post-war reconstruction delivered fast-growing economies and low unemployment in Europe. Gender inequality helped spur the post-war baby boom More than anything, the jump in birth rates in the 1950s was fuelled by a stark disparity in the economic opportunities of young men and young women. Why won’t the current low birth rates be followed by another baby boom?Ī close inspection of the causes of the post-war baby boom gives little hope for more babies coming to rescue us today. ![]() Birth rates started rising again from the mid-1930s, culminating in the famous post-war baby boom lasting until the late 1960s. Today, we know that the crisis never materialised. Then, as now, observers painted bleak pictures of a shrinking, ageing population and dire economic outcomes. Western Europe faced a similar situation in the 1930s, with fertility rates in a number of countries dipping below the replacement level for the first time. Total fertility rate in 2006 in the EU and selected European countriesĪt a quick glance, history might appear to offer hope that today’s low fertility can be overcome. Can anything be done to reverse the European baby bust? Unless Europe’s lack of babies is made up for by a huge increase in immigration, at current trends most European countries will soon experience declining populations. 2 Strikingly, not one European country showed a fertility rate of 2.1 or above, the “replacement level” that maintains a constant population size. 1 In 2006, fertility rates were below 1.4 children per woman in Germany, Italy, Spain and all of Eastern Europe (see Table 1). ![]() After decades of falling fertility rates, Europe faces an imminent demographic crisis. ![]()
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